S&P 500 Losing Momentum—Yields Dive as Traders Brace for “Liberation Day”
S&P 500 Losing Momentum—Yields Dive as Traders Brace for “Liberation Day”
Also, 30-year T-bond, silver, crude oil and Japanese yen futures
- S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): -0.83%
- 30-year T-note futures (/ZB): +1.33%
- Silver futures (/SI): -0.6%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.17%
- Japanese yen futures (/6J): +0.74%
Global financial markets remain uneasy as the Trump administration weighs implementing 20% across the board tariffs tomorrow. That’s no April Fool’s joke, which is why the defensive posturing has continued: stocks are oscillating between gains and losses; bond yields are lower across the curve; the Japanese yen is the top-performing major currency; and gold prices touched another all-time high.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESM5 | -0.83% |
/NQM5 | -0.72% |
/RTYM5 | -1.27% |
/YMM5 | -1.02% |
The U.S. backdrop to the equity market remains turbulent with investors concerned about how tariffs will affect the economy. The White House is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs later this week. S&P 500 futures (/ESM5) were down 0.25% at the opening bell. Yesterday, prices dropped to the lowest levels since September before recovering throughout the trading day. Newsmax (NMAX) is up 43% in its second day of trading. Shake Shack (SHAK) rose 2% after an upgrade from Loop Capital.
Strategy: (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 5175 p Short 5200 p Short 6075 c Long 6125 c | 66% | +292.50 | -2207.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 5200 p Short 6075 c | 71% | +2525 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 5175 p Short 5200 p | 85% | +275 | -2225 |
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTM5 | +0.11% |
/ZFM5 | +0.38% |
/ZNM5 | +0.63% |
/ZBM5 | +1.33% |
/UBM5 | +1.84% |
Treasuries rose across the curve this morning. The long end is outpacing shorter-dated issues, with 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBM5) up 0.83% this morning. Inflationary concerns from tariffs are driving the price action. The White House will issue a statement tomorrow that should bring more clarity to the market, but that may not stop the upside pressure in bonds. /ZBM5 is breaking above the upper boundary of a bull flag pattern, and prices are now resuming the previous uptrend.
Strategy (52DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 113 p Short 115 p Short 123 c Long 125 c | 63% | +687.50 | -1312.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 115 p Short 123 c | 71% | +1500 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 113 p Short 115 p | 83% | +359.38 | -1640.63 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCM5 | +0.24% |
/SIK5 | -0.6% |
/HGK5 | -0.36% |
It's another up day for gold prices. The precious metal is benefiting from lower bond yields, a weaker dollar and a risk-off move in equity markets. Prices are pushing into fresh all-time highs, as traders continue to hedge against an economic slowdown and a possible uptick in inflation. Meanwhile, silver prices (/SIK5) have lagged, pushing the gold/silver ratio.
Strategy (56DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 30.75 p Short 31.5 p Short 38.25 c Long 39 c | 64% | +1130 | -2620 |
Short Strangle | Short 31.5 p Short 38.25 c | 72% | +4350 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 30.75 p Short 31.5 p | 83% | +540 | -3210 |
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLK5 | +0.17% |
/HOK5 | +0.37% |
/NGK5 | -2.48% |
/RBK5 | +0.54% |
Crude oil prices (/CLK5) moderated this morning after hitting a five-week high yesterday. Traders have pushed the commodity higher as fears about supply from possible secondary tariffs on Russian crude oil circulate in the market. Still, economic growth from tariffs is likely to take a hit, which should cap the upside for prices. Additional spare capacity that OPEC+ can bring online should prices continue to rise provides a self-correcting mechanism to the market. Crude oil stock figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) are in focus for today.
Strategy (44DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 64 p Short 65.5 p Short 78.5 c Long 80 c | 64% | +380 | -1120 |
Short Strangle | Short 65.5 p Short 78.5 c | 71% | +1340 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 64 p Short 65.5 p | 80% | +240 | -1260 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AM5 | +0.2% |
/6BM5 | -0.07% |
/6CM5 | -0.02% |
/6EM5 | -0.07% |
/6JM5 | +0.74% |
Japanese yen futures (/6JM5) benefited from a risk-off tone across financial markets. Traders are seeking safety in the traditional haven currency, as they lose faith in the dollar amid a complex backdrop around tariffs. The dollar found a small reprieve in economic data released this morning, but gains didn’t hold. For now, traders are focused on the upcoming announcement from the White House on reciprocal tariffs.
Strategy (66DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.00635 p Short 0.0065 p Short 0.007 c Long 0.00715 c | 66% | +487.50 | -1387.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 0.0065 p Short 0.007 c | 71% | +925 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.00635 p Short 0.0065 p | 86% | +225 | -1650 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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