Nasdaq 100 Opens Lower Ahead of Trump’s “Liberation Day” Announcement

Also, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil and euro futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): -0.32% 
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): +0.07% 
3. Gold futures (/GC): +0.31% 
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): -0.17% 
5. Euro futures (/6E): +0.38% 

Later today, President Donald Trump will make his hyped “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. Beyond that, little is known. The exact tariff rates and which countries will be affected have yet to be announced. The Wall Street Journal reported late yesterday that plans were still being formulated, let alone finalized. With that backdrop, all eyes will be on the Rose Garden this afternoon starting at 4 p.m. EDT. 

U.S. stocks fell on tariffs news, as traders wait for more details on reciprocal tariffs. Several options are on the table, with a possible 10% or 20% blanket tariff for imports. If we get the lower end of that range, it may provide a reason to step back into the market. Tesla (TSLA) fell 3% in early trading, which dragged the market lower given its weight. Stock in nCino (NCNO) fell 25% after the cloud banking company released disappointing fourth-quarter results.   

Treasuries were slightly higher this morning, with 10-year T-note futures (/ZNM5) up 0.07% as traders await the White House announcement on tariffs expected later today. The 10-year yield is trading near the lowest levels since October 2024 at 4.146%. The yield is down over 20 basis points from just last week. If the tariff announcement is worse than feared, it could lead to more bids in haven assets such as bonds.  

Uncertainty in the market is boosting the appeal of gold and other safe-haven assets. Gold futures (/GCM5) rose 0.58% in early trading as the metal pushes near the all-time high it reached yesterday. Trump’s tariff policies are expected to add to inflation, which is working to the benefit of gold. Those tariff policies are also increasing the risk of recession, pushing traders out of equity markets. The backdrop for gold remains bullish. If the White House takes an easier stance on trade, it could cause a correction in precious metals, but for now traders are bidding on the metal.  

Crude oil futures (/CLK5) stalled after prices briefly rose above the 72 handle yesterday. Supply worries over Iran and Venezuelan exports have supported the market over the last month, but traders may shift their attention back to trade measures and the implications they have on global growth. If crude imports for the U.S. are subject to tariffs, it could make gasoline and diesel prices more expensive domestically. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 6.1 million barrel build in oil stocks this morning, which overshot the expected draw of 2 million barrels.  

Euro futures (/6EM5) gained ahead of the tariff announcement. Traders see the trade measures as being a net negative to U.S. economic growth, which is hitting the dollar. The move higher in Treasuries is also pressuring dollar strength. The U.S. measures are also expected to impact economic growth in Europe, one of the largest trading partners of the United States. Meanwhile, inflation measures in Europe have trended in a favorable direction that could allow more room for the European Central Bank (ECB) to maneuver policy.

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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