Nasdaq 100 Rally Aided by Netflix’s Strong Earnings and the Stargate Announcement

Also 10-year T-note, Copper, Natural gas, and Japanese yen futures 

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.91% 
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): +0.04% 
3. Copper futures (/HG): -0.71% 
4. Natural gas futures (/NG): +0.75% 
5. Japanese yen futures (/6J): -0.26% 

Risk appetite continues to improve midway through the week. Yesterday’s AI infrastructure announcement at the White House—dubbed The Stargate Project and led by OpenAI, Softbank (SFTBY) and Oracle (ORCL)—has helped reinvigorate belief in mega cap tech and semiconductors. The Netflix (NFLX) earnings report likewise underscores the strength of the U.S. consumer. The Nasdaq 100 leads other indexes by more than double as a result. Elsewhere, bond yields are moving sideways leading to churn in FX markets and precious metals. 

New economic policies via executive orders alongside robust earnings results are helping prop up stocks on Wednesday. Netflix is posting a double-digit gain to trade at all-time highs after its subscription numbers blew past the high end of forecasts, while Oracle is riding the Stargate announcement higher by at least 5%. Both the Nasdaq 100 (/NQH5) and S&P 500 (/ESH5) have broken out higher in recent days amid a continued contraction in volatility; all-time highs are but a stone’s throw away. 

It’s a mostly boring week for bonds, insofar as the Federal Reserve is in its communications blackout window and the U.S. macroeconomic calendar is relatively barren. Focus today is on the U.S. Treasury’s 20-year bond auction (/ZBH5). Low volatility in notes (/ZNH5) is a curious development, however, seeing as how Fed rate cut odds are just moving off a relative extreme and recent tariff announcements have sent ripples through the rates space. That said, the continued decline in volatility may be a clue that a bottom has been found.

Last week’s muscular performance by the metals has been met by meandering price action midway through the week. Gold prices (/GCG5) have hit a fresh yearly high, trading to the highest level since Election Day last year, whereas silver prices (/SIH5) have been struggling to break the downtrend from the October and December 2024 swing highs. However, our attention is on copper (/HGH5), given its dramatic surge at the start of 2025 and the fact that it is on pace to close below its one-week moving average for the first time this year. 

The energy sectors continuesto digest the breadth and scope of the Trump administration’s initial executive orders. While “drill, baby, drill” is a campaign slogan that promises to bring down prices for consumers vis-à-vis more supply, it’s not necessarily a positive development for energy producers or commodity prices themselves. For now, natural gas (/NGH5) remains in the thrall of manic weather conditions nationwide; the Gulf Coast has seen record colds and snowfall totals this week. 

In what has become a classic risk-on kind of day in FX markets, there’s little surprise that the U.S. dollar ($DXY) and Japanese yen (/6JH5) are laggards on the day. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is forecast to hike rates by 25 basis points to bring its main rate to 0.5%, a signal the bank doesn’t think the Federal Reserve will be continuing its rate cut cycle anytime soon. Overnight index swaps are discounting a 91% chance of a rate hike when the BOJ meets Friday in Japan, which is Thursday night for U.S. traders. 

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

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