Nasdaq 100 Hounded by Tariff “Liberation Day”; Gold and Oil Jump

Also, 30-year T-bond, gold, crude oil and euro futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): -1.84% 
2. 30-year T-bond futures (/ZN): +0.56% 
3. Gold futures (/GC): +1.07% 
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): +2.15% 
5. Euro futures (/6E): -0.27% 

A continued stream of promises by President Donald Trump over the weekend to enact aggressive tariffs has traders thinking more about “liquidation day” than the April 2 “Liberation Day” at the start of the week. Stock futures have started to test new yearly lows, unleashing a wave of safe haven buying on today: yields are lower across the curve; gold hit a new all-time high; and the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar are outpacing the rest of their major counterparts. The week is still young: The March U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is due Friday.  

Nasdaq futures (/NQM5) fell nearly 2% early today at the end of a quarter that saw sentiment deteriorate rapidly on economic concerns. Tariffs are weighing on the market again, as the Trump administration’s next round of tariffs are set to go into effect later this week. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is privately pushing those around him to get tougher on tariffs. Auto stocks were lower this morning, with Ford (F) sinking nearly 2%, while General Motors (GM) shed 1.5% at the opening bell. Tesla (TSLA) fell 5% after a price target cut by the Stifel investment banking firm. CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 5% following its market debut on Friday. 

Traders are hiding out in the long end of the curve, with 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBM5) up 0.77% this morning. Prices are breaking above trendline resistance that formed the upper boundary of a bull flag pattern, resuming its previous uptrend. Treasuries are on track to outperform stocks this quarter for the first time in years, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) up 4.4% this quarter. Traders are uncertain about how tariff negotiations will go, injecting fear that the market will face tariff headwinds for at least a couple more months, risking further deterioration to the economy. 

Gold futures (/GCM5) rose nearly 1% into fresh all-time highs to start the week as traders seek safety from the equity market. The drop in bond yields is helping to fuel upside in the metal. The metal is gaining as traders look for an inflation hedge on the idea that tariffs will prompt higher prices. Meanwhile, banks have been raising their price targets on the metal after it breached the psychological 3,000 level earlier this month. 

Crude oil prices (/CLK5) rose 0.5% as the market weighs threats to oil supply. The United States has threatened Russia with additional tariffs on their oil as talks for peace between Ukraine and Russia drag on. President Trump has indicated that he believes Russia may be dragging its feet on seeking a peace deal. Trump also threatened Iran with bombing if it doesn’t make a deal on its nuclear program. Oil prices are now above the 70 handle, as the geopolitical risk premium juices up premiums. 

Euro futures (/6EM5) trimmed early gains and traded negative as the U.S. market opened. Still, the euro is on track for a healthy quarter of gains and one of its best in the last several years. Today’s pullback comes after the currency bounced last week, holding levels from its early March surge. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates later this year but the yield differentials vs. the U.S. may move in a favorable direction if the Federal Reserve cuts as expected. 

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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