Buying premium prior to an earnings an announcement in hopes of capturing the expansion in volatility is something we have previously investigated, but a refinement of the strategy was recently proposed to us. We wanted to test this strategy to see if there was a way we could successfully take advantage of the volatility increase prior to earnings.
For this study, we looked at 7 different stocks (AAPL, AMZN, CMG, GMCR, GOOG, NFLX, and PCLN) over the past 7 years. Whenever one of these stocks moved 1.5 times its expected move for earnings, we used the next earnings cycle as a setup for a possible above-average volatility increase due to the previous move. For example, if AMZN had an expected earnings move of $10, but moved $15 or more, we used the next earnings cycle as a basis for our entry. In specific, we purchased an ATM straddle in the earnings expiration week, 3 weeks prior to the announcement. We held the straddle until the close before earnings were actually announced. In doing so, we take advantage of any volatility increase or extreme price movement, while avoiding the volatility collapse after earnings.
Over the 7-year period from 2007-2014, we found 32 occurrences in which a setup for this trade arised. The strategy was profitable in 4 out of the 7 stocks, with 15 of the 32 trades being winners (46% win rate). The average debit for all of the trades was $26.52, meaning an average cash outlay of $2,652. The average return on capital (ROC) for the trades was 2.1%, a low figure considering the infrequency of the trade occurrences, as well as the amount of time required to hold the trade.
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