Commodity prices including those for crude oil, copper, natural gas, and wheat have fallen significantly in 2023. With the decline in prices, inflation has turned around from its highs and could now be faced with potential deflation. Frank looks through historical data for the last twenty years to find the last time commodity prices rose and fell so quickly, and he correlates the price changes to that of the Financial Crisis to answer whether or not commodity prices are predicting a recession.
With the May Fed meeting in the past, Frank looks forward to the June and end-of-year FOMC meetings to see where interest rates are projected to be in the future. Interest rates are currently projected to be lower by 1-2% in the next year. Then, he correlates interest rates to stocks to find what a decrease in rates could mean for the market.
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