Tesla Earnings—Huge 9% Stock Price Move Expected This Week
Tesla Earnings—Huge 9% Stock Price Move Expected This Week
By:Mike Butler
Tesla is slated to report quarterly earnings tomorrow after the market closes.
- Tesla is expected to report earnings per share of $0.77 on $27.14 billion in revenue.
- While it has had a spotty earnings history, both estimates are higher this quarter.
- Earnings expectations are volatile with almost a 10% stock price move expectation this week.
Tesla (TSLA) is set to report quarterly earnings on tomorrow, and the stock market is not taking the announcement lightly. With a stock price of around $400, the market is expecting a +/- 9% stock price move this week. This puts Tesla on the higher end of the implied volatility range for this earnings season.
The company has had a questionable earnings history, beating earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates and revenue estimates just once over the past three quarters. With that said, the market expects Tesla to announce higher EPS and revenue figures this quarter compared to the last earnings call.
In fact, it’s expected to announce an EPS of $0.77 on $27.14 billion in revenue.
After President Trump won the 2024 Election, TSLA stock skyrocketed. That is likely because speculation of Elon Musk's government involvement was a big copmonent of Trump's campaign.
With that said, plenty of question marks still surround Tesla as a company and about its plan for growth.
Words of encouragement were shared by executives in the last earnings press release: “Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”
The release went on to say “this approach will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected, but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.”
But it didn’t end there. “Our purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy,” the company said.
While questions remain around Tesla's future, we look to implied volatility in the options market for more context around this week's announcement.
Based on current implied volatility, we're looking at a stock price expected move of +/- $33.74 this week. With the stock price hovering around $400, this is just under 10% of the notional value of the stock price. Huge implied volatility surrounds this announcement. Looking to March, we can see that options cycle boasts a +/- $67.83 expected move. In other words, this week's announcement makes up for just about half of the expected move through the March expiration cycle. This implied volatility is no joke, and we should expect to see violent moves after the earnings data comes out.
Bullish on Tesla stock for earnings
If you're bullish on TSLA stock for earnings, you're looking for numbers that exceed EPS and revenue estimates. The EV company hasn't posted a double earnings beat over the past three quarters, so that could send the stock higher. Clarity around growth plans in 2025 also wouldn't hurt.
Bearish on Tesla stock for earnings
If you're bearish on TSLA stock for earnings, you may think Musk’s government involvement is completely separate from TSLA stock, and the recent rally may fade. This is the first Tesla earnings announcement since the election rally, and the company has had a hard time posting consistent numbers thus far. Weak guidance paired with an earnings miss could send the stock lower.
Tune in to Options Trading Concepts Live tomorrow at 11 a.m. CST ahead of Tesla earnings for a look at some options trading strategies for the earnings call.
Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been in the markets and trading for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, airing Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2025 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.