Tesla Stock Jumps 8% as Production and Delivery Data Exceeds Expectations
Tesla Stock Jumps 8% as Production and Delivery Data Exceeds Expectations
By:Mike Butler
But bears know the overall production report was still down 4.8% from last year
Tesla stock is up over 8% today after a strong production and delivery report.
The stock is up almost $90 since the April 22 low of $138.80
Tesla will report quarterly earnings in mid-July in an attempt to snap the three-quarter streak of underperformance in earnings-per-share and revenue.
Tesla (TSLA) released delivery and production data this morning, and the company’s stock is moving to the upside in a big way:
"In the second quarter, we produced approximately 411,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles,” a Tesla press release said. “We deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, the highest quarterly deployment yet."
The electric auto-maker beat estimates for this report, but the figures are still down 4.8% from last year. With that said, production and delivery figures beating estimates may suggest we could have a better-than-expected earnings report in a few weeks. Time will tell, but Tesla bulls would love to see it, considering the three-quarter streak of misses the company has posted in both earnings-per-share (EPS) and revenue over the last three earnings calls.
TSLA stock has had a bumpy 2024 and is still down on the year after opening at $250.08. But the company’s stock has shot up off the low of $138.80 realized on April 22. It currently sits at $230 per share.
Implied volatility (IV) can always help us put context around big intra-day move and help determine what the market expects from binary events like an earnings an expected move of +/-$25.56, which tells us the market is expecting the earnings report to fall within that expiration.
The stock price rally today exceeds the expected move for the next 17 days, which helps us understand the magnitude of the rally.
Looking to the end of the year, we can see that the market is pricing in an expected stock price move of +/-$67.41, which tells us that this earnings report should produce some fireworks considering it's just under 50% of the expected move through the rest of the year.
Bullish on Tesla stock ahead of earnings
Tesla bulls are rooting for the losing streak to snap in this upcoming earnings call. Tesla has missed on EPS and revenue estimates three quarters in a row, but the positive production and delivery data could be good news for the earnings call. Either way, the company needs to post a strong report to snap out of this losing streak. An earnings beat and positive sentiment through the end of the year could result in a rally after the earnings call.
Bearish on Tesla stock ahead of earnings
Tesla has bounced off 2024 lows in a big way, and the company will need to maintain this momentum to post a stock price gain this year. Tesla bears may remind themselves that even though this production news was better than expected, the overall production report was still down 4.8% from last year. If Tesla misses on EPS or revenue this earnings call, we may see the stock fall from the recent rally.
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Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been in the markets and trading for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, airing Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb
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