Nasdaq 100 Jumps After Another Trump Tariff U-Turn—Or Was It?

Also, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil and euro futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +1.96% 
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): +0.43% 
3. Gold futures (/GC): -0.63% 
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): +1.28% 
5. Euro futures (/6E): +0.37% 

A weekend of confusing headlines regarding tariff exemptions has thus far not deterred traders from taking a more constructive approach on today. The Trump administration’s announcement on Saturday that smartphones, laptops and semiconductor storage devices (among others) would not be subjected to the 145% tariff against China has since been undercut by comments from President Trump himself as well as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick; both have suggested more fine-tuned sectoral tariffs will be announced in the coming weeks. Signs of de-escalation are nevertheless welcomed, affording a reversal of some of last week’s nasty price action: Stocks and bonds are higher, while gold is weaker. Unfortunately, the U.S. dollar has not been able to capitalize on the shift in sentiment. 

Technology names got a lift from Trump’s surprise tariff exemption announcement from over the weekend. Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQM5) rose over 2% in early trading. Apple (AAPL) gained over 5% in pre-market trading, while Best Buy (BBY) rose over 9% before the bell. Goldman Sachs (GS) rose 2% after solid earnings beat. Pfizer (PFE) was slightly lower after scraping its weight loss drug after a patient in its clinical trial suffered a liver injury.  

Bonds rose to start the week, with 10-year T-note futures (/ZNM5) gaining about 0.55% ahead of the New York trading session. The pullback on tariffs cleared some upside for bonds as fears around the trade war settled a bit following the latest news on exemptions. Last week’s surge in yields came amid speculation that investors were losing confidence in the United States. Meanwhile, policymakers in Japan cautioned against selling Treasuries to respond to U.S. tariffs, something that likely helped force the U.S. to ease its stance during last week’s market dysfunction. Bond investors are watching a 20-year bond and five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities auctions later this week.  

The risk-on tone in U.S. markets is pushing gold down as investors trim their positioning in the safe-haven asset. Gold prices (/GCM5) were 0.76% lower in early trading but managed to hold above the 3,200 level. Still, a deal between the U.S. and China seems unlikely over the short term, and gold prices look ready to reverse higher should geopolitical uncertainty elevate once again. Forecasters have raised their prices on gold recently and most traders remain bullish on the metal.  

Crude oil prices (/CLK5) rose over 1% to trade around the 62 handle this morning. The pullback in trade war tension helped move the commodity higher. Data from China was also encouraging, with that country reporting better-than-expected import figures for March. Still, oil prices remain more than 13% lower since the start of the month and sentiment remains fragile. Traders are worried about a collapse in demand should the tariffs affect the global economy to the degree that some expect. OPEC cut its demand forecast by about 150,000 barrels per day in 2025, citing concern about trade as one of the factors.  

Euro futures (/6EM5) are taking a breather after trading at the highest levels since November 2021. The currency has come out as one of the preferred trades to hedge against uncertainty amid the U.S. trade war. The strength of the move has injected concern that investors are losing faith in the dollar and the U.S., which could have wide-reaching consequences for the global economy.  

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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