Nasdaq 100 Continues Recovery, Aided by Earnings from Meta, Tesla, IBM
A Federal Reserve meeting that produced little new information or market reaction was easily trumped by the tidal wave of strong tech earnings after hours yesterday. Coupled with the release of the 4Q ’24 U.S. GDP report, which showed modest growth of 2.3% annualized—certainly not the overheating feared—traders are liking what they’re seeing for equity markets. Bond traders have likewise dropped yields although they’ve moved off the morning lows. Nevertheless, the combination of lower yields and a weaker U.S. dollar is doing wonders for precious metals, which are trading at their 2025 highs.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESH5 | +0.37% |
/NQH5 | +0.69% |
/RTYH5 | +1.04% |
/YMH5 | -0.1% |
A quadfecta of earnings releases after hours yesterday has helped pave the path for a continued rebound in U.S. equity markets today. While Tesla (TSLA) missed on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, the same can’t be said for IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT) or Meta (META). That said, the clear winners after earnings are IBM and META, which are helping to carry the rising tide today. After hitting a high of 22.71 earlier this week, the spot VIX is back under 16.
Strategy: (43DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 20250 p Short 20500 p Short 23000 c Long 23250 c | 60% | +1315 | -3685 |
Short Strangle | Short 20500 p Short 23000 c | 67% | +5520 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 20250 p Short 20500 p | 79% | +775 | -4225 |
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTH5 | +0.03% |
/ZFH5 | +0.15% |
/ZNH5 | +0.24% |
/ZBH5 | +0.44% |
/UBH5 | +0.47% |
The Fed is in a bit of a box, having just issued new economic forecasts in December and the Trump tariffs not yet having gone into effect. Not exactly a proactive institution, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) isn’t likely to change policy on the speculated affects of tariffs, so there was little surprise that Fed Chair Jerome Powell planted his flag firmly in the “wait-and-see” ground yesterday: The FOMC has forecast two 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts this year, and the market is discounting the same per three-month SOFR futures (/SR3Z5), so that’s that for now. The next FOMC meeting is on March 19.
Strategy (50DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 105 p Short 106.5 p Short 111.5 c Long 113 c | 66% | +281.25 | -1218.75 |
Short Strangle | Short 106.5 p Short 111.5 c | 69% | +486.75 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 105 p Short 106.5 p | 90% | +140.63 | -1359.38 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCJ5 | +2.16% |
/SIH5 | +3.09% |
/HGH5 | +0.72% |
It’s a very good day for precious metals, which have continued to rally over the course of the morning. Gold prices (/GCJ5) are having their best performance since July 30, 2024, while silver prices (/SIH5) have rallied more than 3% for their best performance since Jan. 15. The latter has now broken the downtrend from the October and December 2023 swing highs.
Strategy (55DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 28.5 p Short 29.25 p Short 33.75 c Long 36.5 c | 63% | +1155 | -2595 |
Short Strangle | Short 29.25 p Short 33.75 c | 72% | +4840 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 28.5 p Short 29.25 p | 84% | +505 | -3245 |
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLH5 | -0.3% |
/HOH5 | -0.62% |
/NGH5 | -1.01% |
/RBH5 | -0.33% |
Growing U.S. oil inventories are helping to keep crude oil prices (/CLH5) capped through the turn of the week. What was an explosive start to the year has quickly been undone: after being up by 12.51%, /CLH5 is now up just 1.69% in 2025. Volatility for /CLH5 has likewise been hauntingly low, with the IVR dropping to 2.4 at its low yesterday. Natural gas (/NGH5) inventories are due later today.
Strategy (46DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 65 p Short 66.5 p Short 80.5 c Long 82 c | 62% | +390 | -1110 |
Short Strangle | Short 66.5 p Short 80.5 c | 69% | +1560 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 65 p Short 66.5 p | 77% | +250 | -1250 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AH5 | +0.04% |
/6BH5 | +0.21% |
/6CH5 | +0.03% |
/6EH5 | +0.29% |
/6JH5 | +0.8% |
The European Central Bank rate decision came and went without much fanfare, as the Governing Council delivered the 2bps rate cut and forward guidance as anticipated by the markets. The euro (/6EH5) is barely positive on the session. Instead, weaker U.S. economic data has helped provide a small lift to U.S. Treasuries, and that turn lower in yields is providing a new excuse for traders to drop the U.S. dollar today: the rates-sensitive Japanese yen (/6JH5) is the leader and is likewise breaking its downtrend from the September and December 2023 highs.
Strategy (64DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.0061 p Short 0.00625 p Short 0.00675 c Long 0.0069 c | 63% | +425 | -1450 |
Short Strangle | Short 0.00625 p Short 0.00675 c | 68% | +850 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.0061 p Short 0.00625 p | 92% | +100 | -1775 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
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