Nasdaq 100 Sees Gains Cut in Half Amid Back-and-Forth Tariff Talk

Also, 10-year T-note, copper, crude oil and British pound futures

1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): -1.02% 
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.27% 
3. Copper futures (/HG): +1.29% 
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): % 
5. British pound futures (/6B): % 

Risk appetite has cooled today amid conflicting messages from Washington. On one hand, the Trump administration’s tariff talk continues to appear arbitrary and inconsistent, which in turn has pushed measures of economic uncertainty to multi-year highs. On the other hand, the data released from statistical agencies show businesses and consumers are still spending money. (Although one might argue that spending is being dragged forward ahead of the imposition of tariffs.) Regardless, markets have a bit of an anti-U.S. flavor today, with bonds and equities both trading to the downside. 

Some upbeat economic data from the U.S. wasn’t enough to push stocks higher this morning. Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQM5) were 0.22% lower ahead of the opening bell. The Trump administration has softened its stance on tariffs, which are set to take effect next week. That helped propel stocks higher earlier this week, but concerns about growth remain in the spotlight. GameStop (GME) rose 10% after the company announced it would buy bitcoin with some of its cash stockpile. Dollar Tree (DLTR) was little changed after trimming pre-market gains following the announcement it would sell its Family Dollar business.  

Treasuries moved lower across the curve this morning as traders prepared for next week’s tariff announcement, which President Trump has referred to as “Liberation Day.” 10-year T-note futures (/ZNM5) fell 0.27% in early trading, reversing yesterday’s gains and pushing prices to levels near the lowest traded since late February. The Treasury will auction two-year floating rate notes (FRNs) and five-year notes today. This morning’s strong durable goods orders data showed the economy may not be as weak as feared, which could slow the potential rate of cuts from the Federal Reserve. That said, better-than-expected economic data, going forward, will likely increase yields on Treasuries.  

Copper prices (/HGK5) continued to rise this morning, increasing over 1% this morning. The Trump administration may put tariffs on copper imports in the coming weeks, according to a Bloomberg report. Copper stocks have been flowing into the U.S. over the past couple of months as the anticipation of tariffs caused traders to front-load supply. The news generated an additional tailwind that may see these flows continue over the next week as the rush for copper into the U.S. increases.  

Concern over global oil supply is growing, as the U.S. moves to restrict the flow of Venezuela's crude oil exports. This comes after Washington tightened its grip on Iranian oil, injecting fear into the market over the supply of crude. Oil stocks in the U.S. also fell more than expected in the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly inventory report. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will announce its own data on weekly inventory figures this morning, which will provide the market with its next directional cue.  

British pound futures (/6BM5) fell 0.5% in early trading after Britain’s Debt Management Office announced plans to issue less government debt in the 2025/26 fiscal year. Britain will issue $386 billion of government bonds, which is less than the market expected. Gilts rose after the announcement, pushing yields lower and sapping the yield differential against its peers. /6BM5 is now trading near its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), which has supported prices going back to mid-February.  

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. #@fxwestwater
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