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Nasdaq 100 and Dollar Drop While Gold Soars as Trump Talks of Firing Powell

By:Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Also, 10-year T-note, gold, crude Oil and euro futures

Nasdaq 100, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil, euro futures
Nasdaq 100, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil, euro futures

  1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): -1.59% 
  2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.11% 
  3. Gold futures (/GC): +3.17% 
  4. Crude oil futures (/CL): -3.2% 
  5. Euro futures (/6E): +1.3% 

“Loose lips sink ships.” The same can be said of public chatter by President Donald Trump and his advisors that they’re looking into the feasibility of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. With a lack of progress in tariff trade talks—look no further than the Japanese delegations disparaging comments over the weekend—traders are back in the mindset of “sell America.” Gold has soared to another new all-time high above 3400, while stocks, bonds and the U.S. dollar are all weaker across the board. 

Symbol: Equities 

Daily Change 

/ESM5 

-1.15% 

/NQM5 

-1.59% 

/RTYM5 

-0.97% 

/YMM5 

-0.97% 

The U.S. equity market sell-off at the start of the week was deepening as this note was written. The Nasdaq 100 (/NQM5) remains the loss leader to the downside and in the context of broader cross-asset flows, foreigners are deleveraging their U.S. mega cap tech positions. To underscore this point: In 2024, half of all capital deployed by Europeans into equity markets went into the U.S.; in 2025 thus far, only about 3% of European capital is being allocated to U.S. stocks. 

Strategy: (39DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 15500 p 

Short 15750 p 

Short 20000 c 

Long 20250 c 

69% 

+1090 

-3910 

Short Strangle 

Short 15750 p 

Short 20000 c 

74% 

+5655 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 15500 p 

Short 15750 p 

85% 

+615 

-4385 

Nasdaq 100, (/NQM5)
Nasdaq 100, (/NQM5)

Symbol: Bonds 

Daily Change 

/ZTM5 

+0.06% 

/ZFM5 

-0.03% 

/ZNM5 

-0.11% 

/ZBM5 

-0.82% 

/UBM5 

-1.03% 

A lack of progress around trade talks has put U.S. Treasuries back in the hot seat at the start of the week. The Japanese trade delegation left the United States without any concept of what the Trump administration is trying to achieve through the negotiations, according to domestic Japanese news. The continued attack by the Oval Office on the independence of the Federal Reserve is likewise raising fears that Trump will try to replace Powell with an ally that will administer monetary policy according to POTUS’ whims.  

Strategy (60DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 107 p 

Short 108 p 

Short 115 c 

Long 116 c 

66% 

+250 

-750 

Short Strangle 

Short 108 p 

Short 115 c 

72% 

+703.13 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 107 p 

Short 108 p 

86% 

+140.63 

-859.38 

10 year treasury, (/ZNM5)
10 year treasury, (/ZNM5)

Symbol: Metals 

Daily Change 

/GCM5 

+3.17% 

/SIK5 

+1.4% 

/HGK5 

+1.2% 


It’s another strong start to the week for metals, which are finding appeal as alternative stores of value amid the generational repricing of USD-denominated risk. Gold prices (/GCM5) have surged by over 3% to another new all-time high above 3400, a clear sign the underpinnings of the U.S.-led global financial system is under increasing (and perhaps unsustainable) stress. Likewise, talk of firing Fed Chair Powell is proving helpful. 

Strategy (65DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 3075 p 

Short 3125 p 

Short 3775 c 

Long 3825 c 

66% 

+1270 

-3730 

Short Strangle 

Short 3125 p 

Short 3775 c 

74% 

+6830 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 3075 p 

Short 3125 p 

86% 

+550 

-4450 

Gold futures, (/GCM5)
Gold futures, (/GCM5)

Symbol: Energy 

Daily Change 

/CLM5 

-3.2% 

/HOK5 

-1.95% 

/NGM5 

-3.08% 

/RBK5 

-2.03% 


Trade data released in recent days coupled with disparaging news flow around trade talks have proven detrimental today for energy. The increasing probability of a sharp global recession gathering pace is becoming too difficult to ignore for crude oil prices (/CLM5). Likewise, positive steps toward a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal following this weekend’s mediated talks in Rome may be helping to take some geopolitical risk premium out of the market. 

Strategy (56DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 52.5 p
Short 54 p
Short 72 c
Long 73.5 c

 63%

+360 

-1140 

Short Strangle 

Short 54 p
Short 72 c

 70%

+1870 

 x

Short Put Vertical 

Long 52.5 p
Short 54 p

 78%

+240

-1260

Light sweet crude oil, (/CLM5)
Light sweet crude oil, (/CLM5)

Symbol: FX 

Daily Change 

/6AM5 

+0.48% 

/6BM5 

+0.9% 

/6CM5 

+0.22% 

/6EM5 

+1.3% 

/6JM5 

+1.03% 


Dedollarization remains a theme of FX markets, with the U.S. dollar (via DXY) dropping to its lowest level in three years. The euro (/6EM5) has jumped above 1.15, while the Japanese yen (/6JM5) has returned to its highest level since October 2024. The stunning lack of support for the greenback in the face of rising U.S. Treasury yields only points in one direction: increasing sovereign risk. That said, there is a bullwhip effect: a weaker dollar hurts other countries’ exports more than it hurts American exports; recession odds in Asia and Europe are increasing. 

Strategy (46DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 1.1 p 

Short 1.11 p 

Short 1.2 c 

Long 1.21 c 

68% 

+300 

-950 

Short Strangle 

Short 1.11 p 

Short 1.2 c 

74% 

+1062.50 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 1.1 p 

Short 1.11 p 

86% 

+150 

-1100 

Euro/US Dollar, (/6EM5)
Euro/US Dollar, (/6EM5)

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and #tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. 

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