Macro Moves in 2024, VinFast’s Volatility and Rivian’s Predictions for a Turnaround
Macro Moves in 2024, VinFast’s Volatility and Rivian’s Predictions for a Turnaround
A weekly look inside Luckbox magazine
Facing a Hornet’s Nest of Uncertainties
A series of tumultuous events began in March when the failure of Silicon Valley Bank plunged credit markets into crisis. Wild swings in stock prices continued as stubborn inflation prompted central banks to raise interest rates.
Meanwhile, Russia relentlessly carried on its bloody offensive in Ukraine. Then tragedy struck again in October as war broke out in the Middle East. This month, the U.S. and its allies retaliated for Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
What pitfalls and bonanzas lie ahead in 2024 remains unclear. But investors should keep two themes in mind in the new year: Mexico will strengthen its position as America’s biggest trading partner, and stock prices will be endangered by the threat of global recession and the possibility of a debt debacle.
Not long ago, the Federal Reserve seemed about to reverse course and lower interest rates—indicating a catch-all recession was on the menu. But new economic reports are casting doubt on that hypothesis.
We shall see what transpires with these and other variables—not to mention happenings we cannot yet imagine. Read the whole story.
VinFast: Big potential, but … (Part I)
Stock in VinFast (VFS) has ranged from $5 to $93 per share since the company made its debut on the Nasdaq in August 2023 as a result of a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) merger. And over the last several months, VinFast shares have been stuck in neutral.
As of this writing, shares were trading for about $6.50, which implies a valuation of roughly $15 billion, compared to its $23 billion capitalization at $10 per share when it was first offered. It appears speculators targeted the company's shares, which makes the correction in prices attributable partly to the departure of fast money .
The future of VinFast remains a mystery, and the stock carries immense risk. Read the whole story.
VinFast vs. Rivian (Part II)
In Part II of Luckbox's VinFast story, we compare the company to Rivian (RIVN), an American electric vehicle manufacturer and automotive technology and outdoor recreation company, and other manufacturers, such as Tesla (TSLA).
Much like VinFast, Rivian is operating at a steep loss. Rivian reported losing roughly $1.3 billion in Q3 of 2023, and the full-year loss is forecasted at roughly $4 billion. In comparison, VinFast is expected to lose somewhere around $2 billion in 2023.
However, with the increased expenditures associated with expanding its manufacturing plants, VinFast’s losses could easily increase in 2024 and 2025.
But Rivian’s fortunes may change. The company predicts it may produce a positive operating profit as soon as fiscal year 2024 or 2025. Read the whole story.
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Kendall Polidori is associate editor of Luckbox magazine.
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