uploaded image

Bitcoin's Seasonality: The November Effect

By:Michael "Dr. Data" Rechenthin

In the 11th month of the year, Bitcoin tipiccally averages 55% returns. This time, we can add the election to the mix, too.

There appears to be a degree of seasonality in Bitcoin’s performance over the years.

Q4 has been the best quarter for Bitcoin price performance since 2016, with average quarterly returns of 55%.

cherry picks 1 nov5.png

More specifically, November has emerged as Bitcoin's standout month for price performance, delivering average returns of over 30%—making it the most profitable month for the cryptocurrency by a significant margin.

cherry picks 2 nov5.png

History doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes. Since the start of Q4 2024, Bitcoin is up around 8%.

cherry picks 3 nov5.png

Seasonality shows up in Bitcoin’s volatility too, with Q4 also the most volatile quarter for bitcoin going back to 2016. On average Bitcoin has realized a volatility of over 100%. It’s not surprising because we often witness a positive correlation between bitcoin price performance and volatility.


cherry picks 4  nov5.png


We’re in the middle of what would typically be Bitcoin’s most volatile quarter, and we have an election tonight! What are the global crypto markets pricing in over the next week?


cherry picks 5 nov5.png


Check out tastycrypto!

Access more crypto data-driven insight and ideas each week in the tastycrypto newsletter. Subscribe for free!

Enable crypto trading in your tastytrade account, Click here!


Backtesting on tastytrade

We wrote about this last week, but we decided to discuss it again because it has been requested. Click here for more information.

cherry picks 6 nov5.png

cherry picks 7 nov5.png


Luckbox newsletter

Need a little more luck in your life? Join other active traders, investors, entrepreneurs, risk-takers and alpha-types. Subscribe for free to tastylive's Luckbox newsletter for your weekly look at life, money and probability.


Two Trade Ideas

COIN ($191) Calendarized Ratio Spread CRAB! (DEC/NOV) $11.09 Debit

Coinbase (COIN) is one of the highest beta stocks to the crypto space, along with MicroStrategy (MSTR). If you think there might be some upside in the election, and then a dip after earnings, an upside CRAB trade might fit the assumption. Try a long DEC 200 call, short 2x the NOV 220 calls, and long the 240 NOV call to define the risk sets up with 13 long delta and some positive gamma up to 220.


cherry picks 8 nov5.png

MARA ($16) Short Put and Call Ratio (DEC) $1.92 Credit

MARA is one of the more prominent crypto miners. Sitting near lows, with IV at 120%, short premium is certainly juicy. Selling the 15 strike put, with the 1x/2x call ratio 17/21, trades at a $1.92 credit with some added profit potential up to 21, and only uses $950 in buying power.

cherry picks 9 nov5.png


Sharing is caringForward this email to your friends so they can subscribe to our newsletters, too! Get weekly data-driven trade ideas with Cherry Picks and daily pre-market insights and trade ideas with Cherry Bomb.

Michael Rechenthin, Ph.D., (aka “Dr. Data”), managing director of research and development, has 25 years of trading and markets experience. He’s best known for his weekly Cherry Picks newsletter. On Thursdays, he appears on Trades from the Research Team LIVE.

Nick Battistatastylive director of market intelligence, has a decade of trading experience. He appears Monday-Friday on Options Trading Concepts LiveOn Wednesdays, he co-hosts Johnny Trades@tradernickybat

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex and macro.

Trade with a better brokeropen a tastytrade account today. tastylive Inc. and tastytrade Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.




Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

Related Posts

tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.  Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors.  Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.

tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.

tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.

tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply.  Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.