JPMorgan and Big Banks to Report Earnings: Will it Save the Market?

Also, a preview of announcements by Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley

• Earnings seasons is about to get underway.
• Can post-election gains in U.S. bank stocks hold through January ahead of new administration.
• Will bank earnings revive market sentiment as January gets off to a bearish start?
  

Earnings season kicks off this week and, as always, some of the biggest banks are set to report their quarterly numbers. America’s six biggest banks—JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup(C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are set to release quarterly figures by Thursday. Together, the banks are expected to report over $30 billion in quarterly profits.

The market has sold off ahead of the reports, perhaps making this bank earnings season more important than ever. It also comes ahead of a new U.S. administration, which will likely see a myriad of changes in regulatory rules and not to mention, broader changes to economic policies.

Market conditions during the quarter ended Jan. 1 likely boosted profit margins for the banks. High rates in longer-duration bonds may have bolstered lending rates while also enabling them to borrow at an advantaged rate with lower rates along the shorter-end of the curve.

According to a report from the Financial Times, fees for investment banking are expected to rise by about 30% for the six banks to total $8.4 billion following a drop in interest rates during the fall that led to issuing more debt. The rally in the stock market also increased mergers and acquisitions as well as equity offerings. Trading profits are also expected to increase.

However, with rosy expectations comes the possibility that investors will be disappointed with anything but great numbers. Let’s look at each bank to get an idea of what to expect.

JPMorgan Chase

JPMorgan Chase will report earnings on Wednesday before the market open. It will be one of the first of the six banks to report earnings for the season. JPM is the largest bank in the United States by market cap, meaning it could have an outsized market impact.

Traders expect JPM to report earnings per share (EPS) of $4.09 on $41.91 billion in revenue. That would compare to an EPS of $3.04 and revenue of $38.57 billion a year ago.

JPM’s technical structure remains strong in 2025, sitting above its 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Prices also remain above its gap higher from 220 in early November following the presidential election. An above-average earnings report could put the November swing high of 254.31 in focus.

Citigroup

Citigroup will report earnings on Wednesday before the market open. The bank holds a market capitalization of $135 billion.

Traders expect Citi to report EPS of $1.22 on $19.51 billion in revenue. That would compare to an EPS of -$1.16 on $17.44 billion in revenue a year ago.

Like JPM, C also holds a bullish technical structure. Prices are trading well above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. The post-election gains are also holding well, with the stock price up 2% since the start of the year.

Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo is also set to report Wednesday morning ahead of the bell. The bank holds a market cap of $234 billion, placing it in the top three largest banks in the United States.

Traders expect to see EPS of $1.35 on $20.58 billion in revenue. A year ago, WFC posted an EPS of $0.86 on $20.48 billion in revenue.

WFC reflects the same strong technical structures seen in JPM and C, with prices holding well above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. Similarly, prices are also holding above the post-election gap from early November. The swing high from November at 78.13 would likely serve as resistance should prices rise after earnings.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs will round out Wednesday morning’s earnings reports from the big banks. While GS has a smaller market cap than the other banks discussed so far, its revenue from investment banking and trading will offer insight into how banks performed in the period from October to December.

Earnings per share are expected to cross the wires at $8.21 with a revenue expectation of $12.36 billion. A year ago, EPS was $5.48 on revenue of $11.32 billion.

GS is one of the weaker performers in the group so far this year, dropping a little over 2% for the month up until today, Jan. 13. Still, it remains above its 100- and 200-day SMAs and continues to hold its post-election gains as well. That said, a weaker-than-expected report may punish this stock more than the others in the group.

Bank of America

Bank of America is scheduled to report earnings Thursday before the market open. BAC is the second largest bank in America by market cap, totaling $345 billion. This makes it one of the most impactful earnings reports of the big banks, second only to JPMorgan.

Traders expect BAC to post an EPS of $0.77 on $25.12 billion in revenue. Last year, it reported EPS of $0.35 on $23.5 billion in revenue.

BAC has performed well so far this year, up about 2.2% through today, Jan. 13. Like other bank stocks, the technical structure remains bullish, with prices above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. An above-estimates earnings report could push prices up to the recent swing high of 48.08 from late November.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley will round out the big banks this week. Its earnings are scheduled for Thursday before the market open. Its wealth management arm is one of the largest of the big banks. However, its weak anti-money-laundering controls came under scrutiny last year. Its performance in this sector may help unveil how trends are unfolding amid rate cuts.

Traders expect Morgan Stanley to post earnings per share of $1.70 and revenue of $15.03 billion. That would be up from EPS of $0.85 and revenue of $12.9 billion a year ago.

MS is among the weaker performers this year for bank stocks, with its price down about 1.8% since the start of the year. Still, like other banks, the technical structure remains resilient. Prices remain above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. However, a weak earnings report could extend the recent declines.

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

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