Ulta Earnings Preview: Huge Expectations Ahead
Ulta Earnings Preview: Huge Expectations Ahead
By:Mike Butler
Ulta Beauty is set to report earnings on March 14 after the closing bell—and expectations are high
- Ulta is expected to post EPS of $7.54 on $3.53 billion in revenue for the quarter.
- EPS and revenue are massive increases from last quarter's results.
- Ulta is the largest beauty retailer in the United States.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is the largest catch-all beauty retailer in the United States, reports earnings March 14 after the market closes.
Ulta's offerings include skincare and other beauty products and salon services. With more than 1,350 retail spaces in 50 states, and a strong e-commerce presence with tutorials and social content, it's no surprise that the company has taken over the beauty industry.
ULTA stock sets a record
ULTA stock reached a new all-time high today of $563.23, which is a staggering rally from the October 2023 low of $368.02.
Dave Kimbell, Ulta CEO, offered some strong words to wrap up 2023 in the last earnings release:
"The third quarter represented another strong performance by the Ulta Beauty team, as sales, gross profit, and diluted EPS all exceeded our internal expectations. Our traffic trends remained healthy, our brand awareness increased, and we expanded our loyalty program to a record 42.2 million members."
Ulta has a relatively high expected stock price move this week ahead of the earnings announcement. Based on current implied volatility, the options market is pricing in a +-$47.33 move this week. With a stock price just over $560, this translates to an 8% stock price move in just a few days.
Looking further through the year, we can see that the April 2024 options cycle boasts a +-$52.01 expected move, and the December 2024 options cycle has a +-$124.89 expected move. The weekly expected move makes up a huge chunk of the expected move for April, which tells us that we should expect a lot of volatility after the stock market closes on Wednesday.
Bullish case for Ulta earnings this week
There are over 330 million people in the United States, and Ulta Beauty has a loyalty program that exceeds 42 million people. This is a massive chunk of the U.S. population. That membership number tells me anyone who remotely cares about skincare or beauty products has likely come across Ulta's website or retail store.
Bullish investors likely believe Ulta can beat the heightened earnings per share (EPS) and revenue expectations this earnings call and offer a strong outlook for the rest of the year. Ulta has exceeded EPS and revenue expectations three quarters in a row.
Bearish case for Ulta earnings this week
Pressure makes diamonds, but it can also blow up a stock price.
With such heightened expectations for the earnings call this week, it seems as though Ulta will need to beat EPS and revenue estimates to maintain the all-time high stock price that was realized today. Ulta bears may believe that the popular beauty store will fall short of expectations, which could send the stock price lower.
Tune in to Options Trading Concepts Live on Wednesday, March 14 at 11 a.m. CDT for a look at options strategies ahead of the Ulta announcement, as well as the Adobe (ADBE) announcement around the same time.
Mike Butler, tastylive director of market intelligence, has been in the markets and trading for a decade. He appears on Options Trading Concepts Live, airing Monday-Friday. @tradermikeyb
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.