S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Futures Edge Higher Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Futures Edge Higher Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
Also, 10-year T-note, silver, crude oil and Japanese yen futures
- S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): +0.11%
- 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.28%
- Silver futures (/SI): -0.23%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.45%
- Japanese yen futures (/6J): -0.62%
Heavier trading volumes amid significant news may have defined trading thus far this week, but all attention has turned today to the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report scheduled for after the closing bell. U.S. equity index futures are modestly higher this morning, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 jockeying for the pole position. Bonds are modestly weaker as geopolitical fears predicated on Russia-Ukraine have subsided. The U.S. dollar is stronger across the board, with the energy- and rates-sensitive Japanese yen proving to be the biggest loser.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESZ4 | +0.11% |
/NQZ4 | +0.14% |
/RTYZ4 | -0.11% |
/YMZ4 | +0.2% |
The main event of the week is here with Nvidia’s earnings after the bell. The nearly $4 trillion company has great influence on market sentiment and has become one of the biggest market-moving earnings for stocks. Target (TGT) fell 17% in pre-market trading after the retailer trimmed its revenue forecast. Nio (NIO) fell 5% despite reporting better margins for the third quarter.
Strategy: (42DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 5625 p Short 5675 p Short 6250 c Long 6300 c | 63% | +497.50 | -2002.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 5675 p Short 6250 c | 68% | +2200 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 5625 p Short 5675 p | 88% | +212.50 | -2287.50 |
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTZ4 | -0.07% |
/ZFZ4 | -0.17% |
/ZNZ4 | -0.28% |
/ZBZ4 | -0.53% |
/UBZ4 | -0.79% |
Treasuries fell across the curve this morning, pushing bond yields higher. President-elect Trump tapped Howard Lutnick as his Commerce Secretary, increasing the odds the U.S. will levy tariffs on a broad category of goods next year. That will likely drive inflation up, trimming bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates more next year.
Strategy (65DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 106 p Short 107 p Short 112 c Long 113 c | 59% | +296.88 | -703.13 |
Short Strangle | Short 107 p Short 112 c | 65% | +687.50 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 106 p Short 107 p | 88% | +140.63 | -859.63 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCZ4 | +0.32% |
/SIZ4 | -0.23% |
/HGZ4 | +0.46% |
Silver prices (/SIZ4) fell as bond yields traded higher this morning. The metal is on track to break a three-week winning streak as we approach the last week of trading for November. Precious metals got knocked off their bullish path after Trump won the election, bringing the threat of higher inflation through increased deficit spending and tariffs.
Strategy (36DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 28 p Short 28.5 p Short 33.5 c Long 34 c | 62% | +725 | -1775 |
Short Strangle | Short 28.5 p Short 33.5 c | 70% | +3160 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 28 p Short 28.5 p | 87% | +230 | -2270 |
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLZ4 | +0.45% |
/HOZ4 | -0.15% |
/NGZ4 | +3.77% |
/RBZ4 | +0.5% |
Increased geopolitical tensions are keeping oil prices afloat. The commodity is on track to record a small monthly gain after the U.S. allowed Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles to strike inside of Russia, which prompted a response from Russian President Putin who threatened to use nuclear weapons. This morning, crude oil prices (/CLZ4) rose nearly half a percentage point despite Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield returning to full capacity following an outage. Inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are due today.
Strategy (58DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 60 p Short 62 p Short 79 c Long 81 c | 63% | +450 | -1550 |
Short Strangle | Short 62 p Short 79 c | 70% | +1760 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 60 p Short 62 p | 80% | +270 | -1730 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AZ4 | -0.43% |
/6BZ4 | -0.08% |
/6CZ4 | -0.15% |
/6EZ4 | -0.38% |
/6JZ4 | -0.62% |
Japanese yen futures (/6JZ4) fell as the yield gap between the U.S. and Japan widened this morning. Traders still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates over the short term, which could help shrink that gap and possibly invigorate the yen, but traders are cautious following the volatility seen through this year. The wild card is how Trump’s policies impact Fed rate cut bets.
Strategy (44DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.0061 p Short 0.0062 p Short 0.0067 c Long 0.0068 c | 68% | +250 | -1000 |
Short Strangle | Short 0.0062 p Short 0.0067 c | 72% | +562.50 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.0061 p Short 0.0062 p | 92% | +62.50 | -1187.50 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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