Nasdaq 100 Awaits NVDA Earnings as SMCI Delays 10-K
Nasdaq 100 Awaits NVDA Earnings as SMCI Delays 10-K
Also, five-year T-note, silver, crude oil and Euro futures
Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): -0.22%
5-year T-note futures (/ZF): +0.01%
Silver futures (/SI): -0.94%
Crude oil futures (/CL): -0.94%
Euro futures (/6E): -0.59%
The most important day of the week has arrived. Nvidia (NVDA) earnings are due out after hours, which could help break the stagnant trading conditions in U.S. equity index futures during the first two days of the week. Ahead of time, the AI narrative is under pressure as Super Micro Computer (SMCI) announced accounting-related issues. Bonds are floating higher over the session, although the stronger U.S. dollar is proving a formidable challenge today for precious metals.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESU4 | -0.11% |
/NQU4 | -0.22% |
/RTYU4 | -0.44% |
/YMU4 | -0.05% |
Nasdaq futures (/NQU4) were slightly lower this morning, down about 0.17% ahead of the New York open. All eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings, which are due today after the close of the market.
Nordstrom (JWN) rose 2% in pre-market trading after the luxury retailer posted better-than-expected earnings. Ambarella (AMBA), the fabless chip maker, rose over 20% ahead of the open after beating revenue estimates and guiding higher for the next quarter. Bank of America (BAC) fell 1% after a filing showed that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) continued to offload shares.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) announced it will miss the deadline to file its annual report on Form 10-K. The delay occurred because the company is reassessing its controls over financial reporting after Hindenburg Research said it identified red flags in its accounting procedures. SMCI is down over 10% in pre-market trading.
Strategy: (51DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 17750 p Short 18000 p Short 21250 c Long 21500 c | 68% | +1010 | -3990 |
Short Strangle | Short 18000 p Short 21250 c | 73% | +4460 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 17750 p Short 18000 p | 89% | +445 | -4555 |
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTZ4 | 0% |
/ZFZ4 | +0.01% |
/ZNZ4 | +0.04% |
/ZBZ4 | +0.08% |
/UBZ4 | +0.16% |
There isn’t too much movement in the Treasury market this morning, although prices across the curve are slightly lower at the New York open. Tomorrow’s update to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and Friday’s inflation numbers could introduce some volatility, but trading volume remains light this week, which is normal ahead of the holiday weekend. The Treasury is set to auction off two-year floating rate notes (FRNs) and five-year notes (/ZF) today.
Strategy (58DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 107 p Short 107.5 p Short 111.5 c Long 112 c | 62% | +125 | -375 |
Short Strangle | Short 107.5 p Short 111.5 c | 67% | +375 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 107 p Short 107.5 p | 94% | +46.88 | -453.13 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCZ4 | -0.51% |
/SIZ4 | -0.94% |
/HGZ4 | -1.68% |
The rebound by the U.S. dollar, amid general de-risking ahead of NVDA earnings, may be helping to produce a pullback in precious metals today. Silver prices (/SIZ4) are the leader to the downside. But as is the case with both gold (/GCZ4) and silver, technical uptrends and technical patterns suggesting new yearly highs remain intact.
Strategy (61DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 26 p Short 26.5 p Short 33.5 c Long 34 c | 64% | +660 | -1840 |
Short Strangle | Short 26.5 p Short 33.5 c | 71% | +3685 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 26 p Short 26.5 p | 81% | +260 | -2140 |
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLZ4 | -0.94% |
/HOZ4 | -1.25% |
/NGZ4 | -3.07% |
/RBZ4 | -0.99% |
Energy markets are down across the board as geopolitical tensions are slowly dissipating in the Middle East. The pullback in crude oil (/CLZ4) is noteworthy in the context of recent inventory data, which has showed bigger drawdowns than anticipated. The next iteration of the weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventories report is due later this morning, with further supply drawdowns expected.
Strategy (50DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 65 p Short 66 p Short 81 c Long 82 c | 63% | +250 | -750 |
Short Strangle | Short 66 p Short 81 c | 71% | +1570 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 65 p Short 66 p | 83% | +120 | -880 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AU4 | -0.22% |
/6BU4 | -0.4% |
/6CU4 | -0.15% |
/6EU4 | -0.59% |
/6JU4 | -0.59% |
A significant technical reversal may be transpiring this morning in the U.S. dollar ($DXY). The largest component of $DXY, the euro (/6EU4), is down over 0.5% and is threatening to close below its daily 5-EMA (one-week moving average) for the first time since Aug. 1. Elevated volatility across FX (foreign exchange0 futures may offer opportunities to fade U.S. dollar weakness by selling call spreads against recent swing highs across myriad currencies.
Strategy (72DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 1.07 p Short 1.08 p Short 1.14 c Long 1.15 c | 57% | +362.50 | -887.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 1.08 p Short 1.14 c | 64% | +1025 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 1.07 p Short 1.08 p | 91% | +137.50 | -1112.50 |
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
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