Frank Kaberna on tastylive discusses current happenings in the market, starting with a focus on how inflation readings have impacted the stock market. NVIDIA was a top performer, while NASDAQ reached year-to-date highs. Crude oil rallied, while gold and silver experienced fluctuation.
Frank also explores how to define an economic recession, suggesting that a 20-30% drop from recent highs in the stock market is a better indicator than measures such as GDP or unemployment rates. Though many people talk about recessions, few know how to technically define it. Active traders might look to the stock market for a continuous measure of how likely a recession is to come. Finally, Frank introduces interest rates to the equation to look at the potential of predicting recessions given historical results.
The conversation later moves on to the Forex Focus segment, discussing the likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Fed and its potential impact on the US dollar. He speculates on the impact of potential rate differentials between the US and Eurozone and how this could affect the value of the euro to US dollar Forex pair. The conversation considers the impact of the overnight carry on Forex pairs, and how greater overnight carry can incentivize holding long positions in the US dollar. The possibility of an interest rate hike in the US continues to be a big incentive to be US dollar short yen.
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