S&P 500 Steady as Traders Prepare for Magnificent Seven Earnings
S&P 500 Steady as Traders Prepare for Magnificent Seven Earnings
Also, 30-year T-bond, silver, natural gas and Japanese yen futures
S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): +0.08%
30-year T-note futures (/ZB): +0.34%
Silver futures (/SI): -0.50%
Natural gas futures (/NG): -2.76%
Japanese yen futures (/6J): +0.59%
Earnings are streaming in as we move through a politically volatile week of trading. The S&P 500’s fear gauge, the VIX, remains elevated near the 15 handle, as traders digest non-stop political headlines about the 2024 Presidential race.
United Parcel Service (UPS) fell over 10% at the open after the delivery company cut its guidance. Elsewhere, the dollar rose on euro weakness and crude oil prices fell. Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are set to start trading today.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESU4 | +0.08% |
/NQU4 | +0.01% |
/RTYU4 | -0.24% |
/YMU4 | -0.05% |
S&P 500 futures are slightly higher this morning as traders prepare for Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG) to kick off the earnings season for the Magnificent Seven, with both companies scheduled to report earnings after market close.
General Motors (GM) beat estimates and raised its full-year guidance this morning, which pushed the stock nearly 2% higher in pre-market trading.
Strategy: (38DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 5550 p Short 5560 p Short 5670 c Long 5675 c | 61% | +275 | -225 |
Short Strangle | Short 5560 p Short 5670 c | 49% | +6587.50 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 5550 p Short 5560 p | 61% | +170 | -330 |
.png?format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=50&width=1000&disable=upscale)
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTU4 | +0.03% |
/ZFU4 | +0.09% |
/ZNU4 | +0.13% |
/ZBU4 | +0.34% |
/UBU4 | +0.32% |
The 30-year T-bond futures (/ZBU4) rose 0.34% this morning as traders continue to grapple with a quickly changing political landscape in the United States following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race. The Treasury will auction off two-year notes today. Durable goods and U.S. gross domestic product data due later this week could influence the Treasury market through interest rate cut bet odds. Traders are pricing in a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Strategy (31DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 117 p Short 118 p Short 121 c Long 122 c | 39% | +578.13 | -421.88 |
Short Strangle | Short 118 p Short 121 c | 58% | +1765.63 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 117 p Short 118 p | 68% | +312.50 | -687.50 |
.png?format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=50&width=1000&disable=upscale)
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCQ4 | +0.46% |
/SIU4 | -0.50% |
/HGU4 | -1.37% |
Silver prices (/SIU4) fell 0.26% this morning, with prices now challenging the June swing low around the 29 level. A break lower could threaten further downside. A slightly stronger dollar is posing a headwind to the metal’s fundamental case. Meanwhile, gold prices are benefiting from political uncertainty in the United States.
Strategy (35DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 28.5 p Short 28.75 p Short 29.75 c Long 30 c | 21% | +975 | -275 |
Short Strangle | Short 28.75 p Short 29.75 c | 54% | +7315 | X |
Short Put Vertical | Long 28.5 p Short 28.75 p | 59% | +570 | -680 |
.png?format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=50&width=1000&disable=upscale)
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLU4 | -1.08% |
/HOQ4 | -0.55% |
/NGU4 | -2.76% |
/RBQ4 | -0.68% |
Natural gas (/NGU4) is giving back some of yesterday’s gains, dropping about 2.76% this morning. Feedgas demand is rising after Freeport resumed operations after Hurricane Beryl damaged some equipment at the plant. That will likely help demand on the export side but there is still plenty of supply in the market and producers are unlikely to cut now because of low prices with the winter so close. That said, we could see selling into strength over the short term.
Strategy (35DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 2.1 p Short 2.15 p Short 2.4 c Long 2.45 c | 26% | +370 | -130 |
Short Strangle | Short 2.15 p Short 2.4 c | 54% | +2360 | X |
Short Put Vertical | Long 2.1 p Short 2.15 p | 57% | +210 | -290 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AU4 | -0.30% |
/6BU4 | -0.07% |
/6CU4 | -0.06% |
/6EU4 | -0.32% |
/6JU4 | +0.59% |
Comments from Japanese officials overnight helped drive yen futures (/6JU4) higher. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) meets later this month on July 31. Markets expect no change to the bank’s interest rate but there is a small chance the BOJ could surprise with a rate hike. Breaking above last week’s swing high of 0.0064925 is in the cards if strength continues through today.
Strategy (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.00635 p Short 0.0064 p Short 0.00655 c Long 0.0066 c | 34% | +387.50 | -237.50 |
Short Strangle | Short 0.0064 p Short 0.00655 c | 56% | +1350 | X |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.00635 p Short 0.0064 p | 69% | +237.50 | -387.50 |
.png?format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=50&width=1000&disable=upscale)
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.