S&P 500 Holds Gains as USD Surge Weighs Down Commodities
S&P 500 Holds Gains as USD Surge Weighs Down Commodities
Also, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil and Japanese yen futures
- S&P 500 E-mini futures (/ES): +0.05%
- 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.16%
- Gold futures (/GC): +0.12%
- Crude oil futures (/CL): +1.07%
- Japanese yen futures (/6J): -0.38%
A relatively quiet earnings and macro calendar for today has markets continuing to focus on the latest appointment news from the Trump transition team. Thus far, no secretary of the treasury has been named, though Yale professor and macro investing legend Scott Bessent remains the frontrunner, per Kalshi. U.S. equity markets are grinding higher in low volume, while bonds are losing recent gains. Elsewhere, metals are trying to find some footing after steep declines in recent days, while the U.S. dollar (via $DXY) has surged to its highest level since late June.
Meanwhile, spot bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $89,983.
Symbol: Equities | Daily Change |
/ESZ4 | +0.05% |
/NQZ4 | -0.01% |
/RTYZ4 | -0.11% |
/YMZ4 | +0.24% |
U.S. equity futures were mostly flat this morning after posting fresh record highs to start the week. Shopify (SHOP) rose over 20% in pre-market trading after the Canadian e-commerce giant posted stellar numbers for earnings and raised guidance. Home Depot (HD) was up 1.5% ahead of the bell after posting a 6% year-over-year increase in sales. Plug Power (PLUG) fell 3% after missing expectations.
Strategy: (37DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 5975 p Short 5980 p Short 6090 c Long 6100 c | 55% | +295 | -205 |
Short Strangle | Short 5980 p Short 6090 c | 45% | +6825 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 5975 p Short 5980 p | 60% | +75 | -175 |
Symbol: Bonds | Daily Change |
/ZTZ4 | -0.04% |
/ZFZ4 | -0.10% |
/ZNZ4 | -0.16% |
/ZBZ4 | -0.32% |
/UBZ4 | -0.30% |
Bonds extended losses on today, with 10-year T-note futures (/ZNZ4) down 0.24%, as investors see U.S. deficits widening after election results showed a stronghold for Republicans across the House and Senate. Several Fed speakers are scheduled for today, including Christopher Waller and Neel Kashkari.
Strategy (45DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 108.5 p Short 109 p Short 110.5 c Long 111 c | 28% | +343.75 | -156.25 |
Short Strangle | Short 109 p Short 110.5 c | 52% | +1406.25 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 108.5 p Short 109 p | 71% | +171.88 | -328.13 |
Symbol: Metals | Daily Change |
/GCZ4 | +0.12% |
/SIZ4 | +0.82% |
/HGZ4 | -1.30% |
Gold prices (/GCZ4) moderated this morning but remained down nearly 3% on the week after yesterday’s sell-off. The metal is on track for its biggest weekly loss since May. A higher terminal rate for U.S. interest rates was priced in after President-elect Donald Trump won the election, prompting traders to price in more inflation via deficit pressures.
Strategy (44DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 2605 p Short 2610 p Short 2680 c Long 2685 c | 19% | +380 | -120 |
Short Strangle | Short 2610 p Short 2680 c | 50% | +7280 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 2605 p Short 2610 p | 62% | +190 | -310 |
Symbol: Energy | Daily Change |
/CLZ4 | +1.07% |
/HOZ4 | +1.34% |
/NGZ4 | +0.21% |
/RBZ4 | +1.33% |
Crude oil prices (/CLZ4) bounced this morning despite ongoing strength in the dollar. OPEC cut its oil demand growth forecast for this year and also trimmed its projection for 2025 this week. Oil remains below $70 per barrel even after OPEC+ pushed back plans to revive some production that was voluntarily cut. Traders will have their eyes on the inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute today.
Strategy (34DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 67 p Short 67.5 p Short 71 c Long 71.5 c | 19% | +380 | -120 |
Short Strangle | Short 67.5 p Short 71 c | 48% | +4090 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 67 p Short 67.5 p | 55% | +220 | -280 |
Symbol: FX | Daily Change |
/6AZ4 | -0.36% |
/6BZ4 | -0.55% |
/6CZ4 | -0.10% |
/6EZ4 | -0.29% |
/6JZ4 | -0.38% |
Japanese yen futures (/6JZ4) is down this morning for the second consecutive day, and prices are now threatening to break below last week’s multi-month lows. The weak yen is a benefit for the country’s exporters, but it puts pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as the central bank moves to gently tighten its monetary policy setting. If last week’s lows break, it could bring intervention risk front and center.
Strategy (52DTE, ATM) | Strikes | POP | Max Profit | Max Loss |
Iron Condor | Long 0.00645 p Short 0.0065 p Short 0.00665 c Long 0.0067 c | 29% | +425 | -200 |
Short Strangle | Short 0.0065 p Short 0.00665 c | 54% | +1725 | x |
Short Put Vertical | Long 0.00645 p
| 68% | +225 | -400 |
Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.
Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.
tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”) and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. tastylive is not in the business of transacting securities trades, nor does it direct client commodity accounts or give commodity trading advice tailored to any particular client’s situation or investment objectives. Supporting documentation for any claims (including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read the applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure found on tastytrade.com/disclosures.
tastytrade, Inc. ("tastytrade”) is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC. tastytrade was previously known as tastyworks, Inc. (“tastyworks”). tastytrade offers self-directed brokerage accounts to its customers. tastytrade does not give financial or trading advice, nor does it make investment recommendations. You alone are responsible for making your investment and trading decisions and for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of tastytrade’s systems, services or products. tastytrade is a wholly-owned subsidiary of tastylive, Inc.
tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.
tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. Neither tastylive nor any of its affiliates are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
© copyright 2013 - 2024 tastylive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Applicable portions of the Terms of Use on tastylive.com apply. Reproduction, adaptation, distribution, public display, exhibition for profit, or storage in any electronic storage media in whole or in part is prohibited under penalty of law, provided that you may download tastylive’s podcasts as necessary to view for personal use. tastylive was previously known as tastytrade, Inc. tastylive is a trademark/servicemark owned by tastylive, Inc.