Also, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil and British pound futures

1. S&P 500 e-mini futures (/ES): +0.01%
2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): 0%
3. Gold futures (/GC): +0.33%
4. Crude oil futures (/CL): -0.66%
5. British pound futures (/6B): +0.41%

Mixed earnings report in the second half of the week may be holding back U.S. equity markets from ending the week at fresh all-time highs.

Stocks are mixed at the open, though they have been losing ground over the past few hours. Bonds are mixed, with the 2s/10s spread inversion deepening to -21 basis points (bps) thanks to a sell-off at the short end of the curve. Energy is taking a step back after yesterday's strong performance, while metals are mixed. The U.S. dollar is continuing its sideways shuffle and is nearly back to unchanged on the week.

No clear direction for S&P 500

The S&P 500 (/ESH4) failed to find a direction following this morning inflation data out of the United States, falling about 0.18% ahead of the opening bell. However, next week brings another slate of data points as well as several high-impact earnings announcements that may be a deciding factor for where prices head next.

Traders assess PCE data

Yields across the short and middle parts of the curve are rising, as rate traders assess the PCE data and what it means for the Federal Reserve. 10-year T-note futures (/ZNH4) remain in a structural downtrend that started at the end of last year, although there are reasons to believe we may have found a bottom. But next week will likely be a deciding moment for bond markets with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and January jobs data.

Gold moves sideways

Gold futures (/GCJ4) are nearly unchanged this morning after being uninspired by today’s PCE data. The precious metal hasn’t offered much excitement lately, holding in a range over the last week, although it is on track to close out the month with a loss of over 2%. Prices do remain above key moving averages, however. The period of consolidation may give way next week amid a heavy schedule of earnings and economic data for the market.

The enthusiasm seen on Thursday in the wake of the U.S. GDP report has not followed through to Friday for energy markets, particularly crude oil (/CLH4). That said, even modest losses today won’t detract from what has been a banner week technically for /CLH4, which broke out of a downtrend and symmetrical triangle to the upside. Now that the multi-week consolidation has ended, the path of least resistance is higher in the short-term.

British pound futures (/6BH4) are rising as the dollar softens slightly against most of its major peers. U.K. consumer sentiment data showed that pessimism faded this month, according to the GfK consumer confidence index, rising from –22 to –19. The Bank of England (BOE) remains committed to a relatively hawkish stance versus market expectations. While the consumer data is encouraging, it likely isn’t enough to nudge the BOE’s view on the need for rate cuts.

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx

Thomas Westwater, a tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

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