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Five futures in focus

Nasdaq 100 Erases October Gains After META and MSFT Earnings Guidance

By:Christopher Vecchio, CFA

Also, 10-year T-note, gold, crude oil and Japanese yen futures

five futures intraday performance

  1. Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): -1.82% 
  2. 10-year T-note futures (/ZN): -0.45% 
  3. Gold futures (/GC): -1.35% 
  4. Crude oil futures (/CL): +1.33% 
  5. Japanese yen futures (/6J): +0.09% 

Strong topline numbers weren’t enough to overcome weaker guidance from tech giants Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), sparking the Nasdaq 100 to a near 2% loss yesterday. U.S. equity markets have now erased their month-to-date gains. The continued bounce in oil prices may be spilling over to the bond market, which remains under pressure despite a spate of cooler-than-expected U.S. economic data this week (JOLTs, GDP). Elsewhere, a stronger U.S. dollar may finally be coming to collect its debts from precious metals: Fold is down over 1%, and silver is down over 3%.

Symbol: Equities 

Daily Change 

/ESZ4 

-1.22% 

/NQZ4 

-1.82% 

/RTYZ4 

-0.76% 

/YMZ4 

-0.70% 

U.S. equity futures declined this morning as investors digested results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms, which both disappointed investors’ expectations. Alas, there is still hope for equity bulls, with Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) set to report after the bell today. Nasdaq futures (/NQZ4) remain above a trendline set in place from mid-September, carved out by a series of higher lows over the last six weeks. 

Strategy: (29DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 19800 p 

Short 19900 p 

Short 20500 c 

Long 20600 c 

20% 

+1565 

-435 

Short Strangle 

Short 19900 p 

Short 20500 c 
 

53% 

+15220 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 19800 p 

Short 19900 p 

59% 

+670 

-1340 

/NQZ4

Symbol: Bonds 

Daily Change 

/ZTZ4 

-0.12% 

/ZFZ4 

-0.32% 

/ZNZ4 

-0.45% 

/ZBZ4 

-0.66% 

/UBZ4 

-0.57% 

Treasuries fell, echoing price action in Europe overnight where European bonds slipped after inflation data for the Euro Zone rose above expectations for October. The personal consumption expenditures index rose 2.1% from a year ago in September, matching expectations. Core inflation—a measure that strips out energy and food prices—rose 2.7% over the same time frame. 10-year T-note futures (/ZNZ4) fell about 0.27% ahead of the New York open. 

Strategy (57DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 109 p 

Short 109.5 p 

Short 111.5 c 

Long 112 c 

28% 

+359.38 

-140.63 

Short Strangle 

Short 109.5 p 
Short 111.5 c 

55% 

+1937.50 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 109 p 

Short 109.5 p 

69% 

+171.88 

-328.13 

/ZNZ4

Symbol: Metals 

Daily Change 

/GCZ4 

-1.35% 

/SIZ4 

-3.40% 

/HGZ4 

+0.11% 

Gold prices pulled back from a record high, dropping about 0.90% this morning despite a weaker dollar. The metal remains on track to record a fourth monthly gain as October trading ends. Election uncertainty has boosted the appeal for precious metals, and Tuesday’s election results might alter the calculus for the metal. 

Strategy (56DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 2745 p 

Short 2750 p 

Short 2835 c 

Long 2840 c 

19% 

+400 

-100 

Short Strangle 

Short 2750 p 

Short 2835 c 

56% 

+10340 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 2745 p 

Short 2750 p 

61% 

+220 

-280 

/GCZ4

Symbol: Energy 

Daily Change 

/CLZ4 

+1.33% 

/HOZ4 

+1.38% 

/NGZ4 

-2.88% 

/RBZ4 

+0.86% 

Crude oil prices (/CLZ4) rose over 1% this morning to extend yesterday’s rally after reports suggested that OPEC+ could delay production cut rollbacks. The move also comes after a surprise drop in U.S. gasoline stocks, which led to higher crack spreads. The signal for investors is that demand for fuel might be increasing in the United States, which provides a tailwind for oil prices. The gains this week took oil prices positive for the month, putting the commodity on track to break a three-month losing streak.  

Strategy (46DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 67 p 

Short 67.5 p 

Short 71.5 c 

Long 72 c 

20% 

+380 

-120 

Short Strangle 

Short 67.5 p 

Short 71.5 c 

53% 

+4270 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 67 p 

Short 67.5 p 

56% 

+210 

-290 

/CLZ4

Symbol: FX 

Daily Change 

/6AZ4 

-0.58% 

/6BZ4 

-0.69% 

/6CZ4 

-0.10% 

/6EZ4 

-0.15% 

/6JZ4 

+0.09% 

Japanese yen futures (/6JZ4) rose after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged. The policy statement supported further rate hikes on the horizon, which helped to lift sentiment in the currency. That, along with some strength in the Euro, helped to push the dollar lower this morning. Industrial production figures are expected to rise in October after a slight increase in September. 

Strategy (46DTE, ATM) 

Strikes 

POP 

Max Profit 

Max Loss 

Iron Condor  

Long 0.00645 p 

Short 0.0065 p 

Short 0.00665 c 

Long 0.0067 c 

30% 

+425 

-200 

Short Strangle 

Short 0.0065 p 

Short 0.00665 c 

57% 

+1812.50 

Short Put Vertical 

Long 0.00645 p 

Short 0.0065 p 

67% 

+225 

-400 

/6JZ4

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, tastylive’s head of futures and forex, has been trading for nearly 20 years. He has consulted with multinational firms on FX hedging and lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives. Vecchio searches for high-convexity opportunities at the crossroads of macroeconomics and global politics. He hosts Futures Power Hour Monday-Friday and Let Me Explain on Tuesdays, and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. @cvecchiofx
Thomas Westwatera tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. 

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