Watching for Global Recession Signals, a New Study of Fundamental Analysis, 0DTE Diagonal Best Practices and a Possible Drop in Crude Oil

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• Why does this macroeconomics expert believe Canada’s economy may be the canary in the coal mine for a global recession?
• A new think tank study shows traders have been thinking about fundamental analysis the wrong way. 
• This 0DTE strategy is more consistently profitable than what most traders do.
• Crude oil prices may be in for a drop. 

Where is the U.S. Recession? Just Look Here. | Macro Money

Canada's economy is facing significant trouble, with a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) and contraction in various sectors, particularly in the service sector. Ilya Spivak analyzed key markets surrounding Canada’s economy to gain insight on where the U.S. may be headed. 

• The Bank of Canada is expected to shift its focus from fighting inflation to promoting economic growth, which could have implications for Wall Street, global stocks, currencies and commodities.
• The bond market's inflation expectations for Canada indicate that the country’s central bank is on track to achieve its inflation target of 2%.
• Housing prices in Canada, a significant component of the consumer price index (CPI), have been declining, suggesting potential deflationary pressure.
• The dovish shift in Canada's monetary policy expectations, influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance, may signal a broader concern for global economic growth, particularly in the U.S., the Eurozone and China. This could lead to lower stocks, a weaker Canadian dollar and a potential global recession.

Do You REALLY Need Fundamentals? (Backtesting 25 Years of Stock Data.)

Fundamentals are a trader’s best friend … right? Examining the reliability of fundamental analysis in stock trading reveals interesting insights. Here are the main takeaways:

• Attempts to evaluate a stock's intrinsic value show inconsistent correlations between fundamental indicators and stock prices in Dow stocks.
• Fundamental analysis relies on subjective interpretations, leading to questions about its effectiveness and the need for more suitable indicators.
• Retail investors might benefit from relying on market efficiency instead of competing with professionals in fundamental analysis.
• tastylive suggests focusing on price or volatility extremes instead of trying to outperform in interpreting fundamental analysis.

How We Trade 0DTE Diagonal Spreads (without overspending) | Zero Days to Expiration Crash Course

tastylive’s most recent research on 0DTE diagonal spreads unveils potential trading strategies. Here are the takeaways:

• Short-term diagonals selling front month options and going long a back month option can be a flexible and potentially profitable options trading strategy.
• Buying longer-dated options to define risk in diagonal trades can yield higher win rates, compared to holding zero DTE options to expiration. 
• Rolling winners intraday and managing trades at 25% of maximum profit is more profitable than holding trades to expiration. 
• The research on 0DTE options is still relatively new, but the study suggests using longer-dated options to define risk can lead to higher win rates and more tailored trading strategies.

Can You Trade The World's Most Rigged Market? | Let Me Explain

Assessing the oil market's dynamics and its potential implications presents a critical viewpoint on what’s next for the U.S. economy. Here are the insights:

• The oil market experienced a disappointment because of a lack of substantial production cuts by OPEC.
• tastylive traders Tom Sosnoff, Chris Vecchio and Tony Battista believe crude oil prices are manipulated and overpriced, and they predict a potential drop in prices in the future.

Vecchio is closely monitoring various economic indicators, such as job openings, continuing claims, and federal tax receipts, and he suggests the economy is slowing down.

Eric Villa is a YouTube specialist at tastylive.

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